NRL Favourites by Day of the Week: Thursday Night to Sunday Returns
Across 1,168 priced NRL regular-season matches, Thursday favourites fell well short of their price while Friday favourites slightly beat theirs. The day matters less than the price band.
Written by Noura Al-RashidiRugby League Predictions specialist
- Sport
- Rugby League
- Question
- Do NRL favourites win more often than their price says on Thursday and Friday nights, Saturdays or Sundays, and which day pays better for backing favourites or underdogs?
- Sample
- NRL premiership matches, March 2021 to September 2026, 1,238 matches with kick-off head-to-head prices; regular-season matches by day of the week
- Friday favourites won (implied 68.9%)70.2%
- Thursday favourites won (implied 68.5%)61.7%
- return backing every favouriteโ5.2%
- priced regular-season matches1,168
NRL fixture lists put games on four main days, and bettors tend to treat Thursday and Friday nights as showcase slots. I wanted to know whether the night a game is played changes how often the favourite actually wins compared with what the kick-off price said. This study covers 1,168 priced regular-season matches, split by day of the week.
The short answer is that Thursday favourites underperformed their price the most, winning 61.7% against 68.5% implied. Friday favourites won 70.2% against 68.9% implied, the only main day where the favourite beat its price. These findings sit behind the day-by-day notes on my rugby league predictions today page, but read on before treating any of them as a rule.
Window 1Thursday favourites fell short, Friday ones edged ahead
Each row sets the chance the kick-off price implied against how often the favourite actually won. Across all days the gap is small: favourites won 67.6% against 69.2% implied, which is about what you would expect once the margin is taken out of a fair market.
The days split apart from there. Thursday shows a gap of โ6.8 points, Saturday โ1.9 and Sunday โ0.7, while Friday sits on the right side at +1.3. The holiday Monday and Tuesday games show the widest gap of all, โ18.8 points, but that is only 18 matches with a range of ยฑ23.0, so I treat it as noise.
Mon/Tue holiday = Easter Monday, King's Birthday Monday and ANZAC Day games; small sample.
View the data: favourites by day: priced v won
| Implied | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday (128 matches) | 68.5% | 61.7% | ยฑ8.4 |
| Friday (275 matches) | 68.9% | 70.2% | ยฑ5.4 |
| Saturday (423 matches) | 69.3% | 67.4% | ยฑ4.5 |
| Sunday (324 matches) | 69.2% | 68.5% | ยฑ5.1 |
| Mon/Tue holiday (18 matches) | 74.4% | 55.6% | ยฑ23 |
| All days (1,168 matches) | 69.2% | 67.6% | ยฑ2.7 |
The Thursday range is ยฑ8.4, so even its gap does not clear the bar on its own. What I take from it is direction rather than proof: Thursday is the one regular slot where the favourite has looked overpriced.
Window 2Thursday underdogs paid while Friday underdogs bled
This is where the price gap turns into money. Flat-staking every Thursday favourite returned โ11.9% after commission, while backing the Thursday underdog returned +18.8%. Friday flips that picture: favourites returned โ1.2% and underdogs โ11.2%.
Saturday and Sunday sit in the middle, with favourites at โ5.6% and โ4.1% and underdogs at +3.4% and โ0.4%. Across every day, backing all favourites returned โ5.2% and all underdogs +2.0%.
Historical flat-stake returns, not a forecast. The 18 holiday games are left out of this chart.
View the data: backing favourites or underdogs by day
| Favourite | Underdog | |
|---|---|---|
| Thursday | โ11.9% | +18.8% |
| Friday | โ1.2% | โ11.2% |
| Saturday | โ5.6% | +3.4% |
| Sunday | โ4.1% | โ0.4% |
| All days | โ5.2% | +2.0% |
My main caveat belongs here. The fixture planners choose which games go on which night, so the biggest and most popular sides land on Thursday and Friday more often, and that selection may explain the gaps better than the day itself. Returns this close to zero can also be produced by chance.
Window 3Short-priced favourites were weakest on Thursday nights
Splitting by price shows where the Thursday shortfall sits. Favourites under 1.40 won 72.3% on Thursday against 80.5% on Friday and 80.3% on Sunday. In the 1.40-1.69 band the Thursday figure drops to 57.1%, well below Friday's 69.4%.
The longest-priced favourites, at 1.70 or longer, tell a different story. Thursday is actually the best day for them at 52.0%, with Saturday at 47.6% and Sunday at 47.7%, so near coin-flip favourites behave much the same whatever the day.
Cells hold 25-186 matches each.
View the data: favourite win rate by price band and day
| Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.40 | 72.3% | 80.5% | 77.4% | 80.3% |
| 1.40-1.69 | 57.1% | 69.4% | 65.8% | 66.4% |
| 1.70 or longer | 52.0% | 50.8% | 47.6% | 47.7% |
Cells hold between 25-186 matches, so the Thursday column rests on the thinnest samples. Still, the pattern fits how I watch these games: a short turnaround can blunt a strong side's completion rate and kicking game, and the short and mid-priced favourites carry that cost.
Window 4Saturday carries the volume, Thursday carries the gap
The table pulls it together with fair odds, the price at which backing the favourite would have broken even. Thursday's fair odds of 1.62 compare with 1.42 on Friday, 1.48 on Saturday and 1.46 on Sunday. The holiday group's 1.80 comes with a return of โ29.1%, from too few games to mean much.
Saturday staged 36.2% of matches and Sunday 27.7%, so those two days drive the overall return. Thursday is only 11.0% of the fixture list, which is why its striking numbers come with such a wide range.
| Day | Matches | Share | Fav. won | Fair odds | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday | 128 | 11.0% | 61.7% | 1.62 | โ11.9% |
| Friday | 275 | 23.5% | 70.2% | 1.42 | โ1.2% |
| Saturday | 423 | 36.2% | 67.4% | 1.48 | โ5.6% |
| Sunday | 324 | 27.7% | 68.5% | 1.46 | โ4.1% |
| Mon/Tue holiday | 18 | 1.5% | 55.6% | 1.80 | โ29.1% |
For a check outside the regular season, finals favourites won 67.9% of 53 matches against 66.9% implied, very close to their price.
Best window
- Question Thursday short prices
Thursday favourites won 61.7% against 68.5% implied, and the 1.40-1.69 band won only 57.1%. I want more than the usual price before backing a mid-priced Thursday favourite.
- Respect Friday favourites
Friday was the only main day where favourites beat their price, winning 70.2% against 68.9% implied, while Friday underdogs returned โ11.2%. I am slower to take the outsider on a Friday night.
- Ignore the holiday swings
The Mon/Tue holiday group shows +95.3% for underdogs, but it rests on 18 matches with a ยฑ23.0 range. I note it and do not stake on it.
Questions bettors ask
Do NRL favourites win more often on Friday nights?
In this study Friday favourites won 70.2% of 275 matches against 68.9% implied by kick-off prices. That is the best day relative to price, though the ยฑ5.4 range means the edge is small and uncertain.
Is it worth backing NRL underdogs on Thursday?
Thursday underdogs returned +18.8% per 100 staked after commission across 128 matches, as favourites won only 61.7%. Fixture selection and a ยฑ8.4 range mean that figure is no promise of future returns.
What return do you get backing every NRL favourite?
Backing every regular-season favourite at kick-off returned โ5.2% after 5% commission across 1,168 matches. Favourites won 67.6% against 69.2% implied.
I'm Noura Al-Rashidi, based in Dubai, and I write the rugby league predictions at fixedmatches.vip โ a relentless, high-tempo game where completion rates quietly decide everything.
View profile โ
