Do AFL Scores Drop in Winter? Match Totals and Overs by Month
Open-air scoring sags through June and July in every era. The total-points line drops with it, but winter overs still land less often than the full-season rate.
Written by Tahlia WhitmoreAFL Predictions specialist
- Sport
- AFL
- Question
- Do AFL match totals fall in the wet winter months, and does the total-points line already allow for it?
- Sample
- AFL premiership matches 2000-2024 (2020 excluded), 4,731 matches
- June open-air scoring vs season average (pts)−5.2
- Overs in June games 2014-202345.7%
- Overs in March games 2014-202350.0%
- Overs, all home-and-away games48.5%
Growing up in Adelaide, I learned early that a June afternoon at an open ground is a different sport from a March twilight game. The ball gets heavy, the contests get stacked, and kicks that would have been goals in autumn fall short. This study asks whether the calendar alone shows that, and whether the total-points line already allows for it.
The short answer is yes on the first part and mostly on the second. Across 4,731 matches, open-air scoring falls to −5.2 points against the season average in June and −6.6 in July. Overs on the line land 45.7% of the time in June against 48.5% across all home-and-away games. Those numbers shape how I frame totals on my AFL predictions this week page, so here is the full picture.
Window 1Open-air scoring sinks through winter while the roof holds
Each game here is measured against its own season's average, which strips out the long decline in scoring across eras. What's left is the calendar effect. At open-air grounds, March games run +5.9 points above the season norm, April slips to −0.9, May to −2.2, then June and July bottom out at −5.2 and −6.6. August recovers to −1.7 as the ground firms up again.
The roofed venue tells the opposite story. Marvel Stadium games sit above the season average in every month, from +5.0 in March to +9.7 in both July and August, because the roof closes when it rains.
Season average removes the rise and fall of scoring across eras.
View the data: match total vs that season's average, by month
| Open-air grounds | Marvel Stadium (roof) | |
|---|---|---|
| March | +5.9 pts | +5 pts |
| April | −0.9 pts | +8 pts |
| May | −2.2 pts | +5.7 pts |
| June | −5.2 pts | +5.1 pts |
| July | −6.6 pts | +9.7 pts |
| August | −1.7 pts | +9.7 pts |
For a bettor, this is the most useful split in the study. A winter under angle belongs at open-air grounds only. Applying it to a roofed game in July is backing the wrong conditions.
Window 2The winter dip shows up in every scoring era
Raw totals have fallen sharply across the three eras, but the seasonal shape keeps reappearing. In 2000-2009, totals ran from 202.8 points in March to 190.3 in June and 188.9 in August. In 2010-2019, they went from 181.0 in March down to 172.4 in June, then bounced back to 180.1 in August.
The 2021-2024 era is lower again, from 168.0 in March to 164.6 in June and 166.3 in August, and the curve is noticeably flatter. Modern defensive structures already compress scoring, which leaves the weather less room to take points away.
View the data: average match total by month, three eras
| 2000-2009 | 2010-2019 | 2021-2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar | 202.8 pts | 181 pts | 168 pts |
| Apr | 191.8 pts | 177.9 pts | 168.3 pts |
| May | 191.6 pts | 176.5 pts | 163.5 pts |
| Jun | 190.3 pts | 172.4 pts | 164.6 pts |
| Jul | 189.9 pts | 173.3 pts | 163.5 pts |
| Aug | 188.9 pts | 180.1 pts | 166.3 pts |
I read that flatter curve as a warning. Recent winters still dip, but by less than the older eras would suggest, so I don't lean on the bigger historical gaps.
Window 3The line falls into winter but still sits high
The total-points line clearly knows about winter. It sits at 174.8 in March and April, eases to 171.4 in May, and drops to 169.2 in June and 168.0 in July. That is the market pricing the heavier going in.
The actual totals still finish below the line almost everywhere. June games average 166.4 against a 169.2 line, and July 165.0 against 168.0. The catch is that March also undershoots, at 172.5 against 174.8, so a line set a little high isn't only a winter problem. August is the one month where the actual total, 171.2, edges past the line of 170.5.
View the data: total-points line vs actual total, by month
| Line | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| March (124 games) | 174.8 pts | 172.5 pts |
| April (353 games) | 174.8 pts | 172.3 pts |
| May (342 games) | 171.4 pts | 169.2 pts |
| June (280 games) | 169.2 pts | 166.4 pts |
| July (351 games) | 168 pts | 165 pts |
| August (327 games) | 170.5 pts | 171.2 pts |
My takeaway is that the line moves the right way but doesn't quite go far enough in the depth of winter, then overcorrects as conditions improve in August.
Window 4June overs land least often, August overs most
Here the line gap shows up as results. June overs landed 45.7% of 280 games, which implies fair over odds of 2.19. Backing the under at the quoted prices returned +4.4%, while the over lost −13.0%. July follows a similar pattern at 47.3%, with the under at +1.1%.
August flips it. Overs landed 53.2% of 327 games and returned +1.4%, while the under lost −10.6%. Across all home-and-away games the overs rate is 48.5%, with a 95% range of 46.2-50.8%.
| Month | Games | Overs | 95% range | Fair over odds | Over return | Under return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March | 124 | 50.0% | 41.2-58.8% | 2.00 | −4.3% | −4.0% |
| April | 353 | 46.5% | 41.3-51.7% | 2.15 | −11.3% | +3.1% |
| May | 342 | 48.8% | 43.5-54.1% | 2.05 | −6.5% | −2.1% |
| June | 280 | 45.7% | 39.9-51.5% | 2.19 | −13.0% | +4.4% |
| July | 351 | 47.3% | 42.1-52.5% | 2.11 | −9.3% | +1.1% |
| August | 327 | 53.2% | 47.8-58.6% | 1.88 | +1.4% | −10.6% |
| Finals (Sep) | 83 | 49.4% | 38.6-60.2% | 2.02 | −4.9% | −2.8% |
| All H&A | 1,777 | 48.5% | 46.2-50.8% | 2.06 | −7.4% | −1.1% |
The main caveat is that month is only a rough stand-in for weather. Dry Perth and Brisbane winters sit alongside wet Melbourne ones, and each month holds only a few hundred priced games, so June's range still reaches past even money. Treat these figures as a lean, not an edge you can count on.
Best window
- Split roof from open-air
Marvel Stadium games ran above the season average in every month, reaching +9.7 in July. Keep winter under thinking for open-air grounds only.
- Lean under, stake small
June overs landed 45.7% and the under returned +4.4%, but the 95% range of 39.9-51.5% includes even money. Use winter as a nudge on top of your weather and ground read, not as a reason to bet.
- Rethink the August under
August overs landed 53.2% and the under returned −10.6%. Once grounds firm up, the winter discount in the line is no longer worth taking.
Questions bettors ask
Do AFL scores drop in winter?
At open-air grounds they do. Against each season's average, scoring falls to −5.2 points in June and −6.6 in July, compared with +5.9 in March.
Does the AFL total-points line allow for wet weather months?
Partly. The June line averaged 169.2 against an actual total of 166.4, and overs landed 45.7% of June games compared with 48.5% across all home-and-away games.
Are Marvel Stadium games lower scoring in winter?
No. With the roof closed in wet weather, Marvel Stadium games averaged +5.1 points against the season norm in June and +9.7 in July.
I'm Tahlia Whitmore, and I write the weekly AFL predictions at fixedmatches.vip — where ground size, travel and contested ball matter more than the ladder ever lets on.
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